Now we have proof: the government used your money to lie about poor people – article by Aditya Chakrabortty in The Guardian. "Early this summer, a national newspaper published a string of curious articles. Under the logo Universal Credit Uncovered, the features promised readers of the Metro the truth about this most notorious of all benefits. The series began with a giant advert wrapped around the cover of the paper, coupled with a four-page spread right in its centre, and continued week upon week for nine weeks.... Throughout its campaign, the DWP would summarise what it called 'Myths' about universal credit and then give readers the 'Facts'. The [Advertising Standards Authority] looked at three of the claims – and found they weren’t facts at all. They were lies, told by the government to its own taxpayers. In big letters, the DWP boasted that 'people move into work faster on Universal Credit than they did on the old system'. After poring over the statistics, the ASA has found this claim 'did not reflect the evidence … had not been substantiated and was therefore misleading'. 'If you need money,' readers were assured, 'your Jobcentre will urgently pay you an advance.' In its ruling, the ASA takes the government to task for not making it clear that this is only a loan and that the vast majority of claimants will have to wait five weeks for their first UC payment. Finally, the adverts’ claim that 'your Jobcentre can pay rent directly to landlords' was again found to be misleading because it only applies to a small number of claimants. It is no small thing for a watchdog to face down the government in such an uncompromising fashion. Yet at the end of its remarkable judgment, there is something even more startling. The DWP is told that in future it must have 'adequate evidence to substantiate the claims in their advertising, to include significant conditions [where the claims don’t apply], and to present significant conditions clearly'. The regulator has been forced to advise the Conservative government to tell the truth."
How big tech is dragging us towards the next financial crash – article by Rana Foroohar in The Guardian, extracted from her book Don't Be Evil: The Case Against Big Tech. See also review by John Naughton in The Observer. "[The economist] Zoltan Pozsar [in a report for Credit Suisse] forensically analysed the $1tn in corporate savings parked in offshore accounts, mostly by big tech firms. The largest and most intellectual-property-rich 10% of companies – Apple, Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle and Alphabet (Google’s parent company) among them – controlled 80% of this hoard. According to Pozsar’s calculations, most of that money was held not in cash but in bonds – half of it in corporate bonds. The much-lauded overseas 'cash' pile held by the richest American companies ... was actually a giant bond portfolio. And it was owned not by banks or mutual funds, which typically have such large financial holdings, but by the world’s biggest technology firms. In addition to being the most profitable and least regulated industry on the planet, the Silicon Valley giants had also become systemically crucial within the marketplace, holding assets that – if sold or downgraded – could topple the markets themselves. Hiding in plain sight was an amazing new discovery: big tech, not big banks, was the new too-big-to-fail industry."
Quote of the day – John Naughton's Memex 1.1 blog. “The forest was shrinking, but the trees kept voting for the axe, who had convinced them that, because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them.”
History as a giant data set: how analysing the past could help save the future – article by Laura Spinney in The Guardian. "In its first issue of 2010, the scientific journal Nature looked forward to a dazzling decade of progress. ... A few weeks later, a letter in the same journal cast a shadow over this bright future. It warned that all these advances could be derailed by mounting political instability, which was due to peak in the US and western Europe around 2020. Human societies go through predictable periods of growth, the letter explained, during which the population increases and prosperity rises. Then come equally predictable periods of decline. These 'secular cycles' last two or three centuries and culminate in widespread unrest – from worker uprisings to revolution. In recent decades, the letter went on, a number of worrying social indicators – such as wealth inequality and public debt – had started to climb in western nations, indicating that these societies were approaching a period of upheaval. The letter-writer would go on to predict that the turmoil in the US in 2020 would be less severe than the American civil war, but worse than the violence of the late 1960s and early 70s... The author of this stark warning was not a historian, but a biologist. For the first few decades of his career, Peter Turchin had used sophisticated maths to show how the interactions of predators and prey produce oscillations in animal populations in the wild,... but by the late 1990s he ... found himself drawn to history instead: could the rise and fall of human societies also be captured by a handful of variables and some differential equations?... Turchin’s approach to history, which uses software to find patterns in massive amounts of historical data, has only become possible recently, thanks to the growth in cheap computing power and the development of large historical datasets. [He also had the work of] Jack Goldstone, ... a mathematician-turned-historian... At the time Goldstone began his research, in the mid-70s, the prevailing view of revolution was best understood as a form of class conflict. But Goldstone made two observations that did not fit that view. First, individuals from the same classes, or even the same families, often ended up fighting on opposite sides. And second, revolutions had clustered in certain periods of history ... but there was no obvious reason why class tensions should have boiled over in those periods and not in others.... Goldstone suggested ways of measuring mass mobilisation potential, elite competition and state solvency, and defined something he called the political stress indicator (psi or Ψ), which was the product of all three. He showed that Ψ spiked prior to the French Revolution, the English civil war and two other major 17th-century conflicts – the Ottoman crisis in Asia Minor, and the Ming-Qing transition in China. ... It was a simple model, and Goldstone acknowledged as much. Although he could show that high Ψ predicted historical revolutions, he had no way of predicting what came next. That depended on the precise combination of the three components of Ψ, and on how they interacted with a given society’s institutions. Incomplete as they were, his efforts led him to see revolution in a depressing new light: not as a democratic correction to an inflexible and corrupt ancien regime, but as a response to an ecological crisis – the inability of a society to absorb rapid population growth – that rarely resolved that crisis."
Between the Stops by Sandi Toksvig: an entertaining journey – review by Stephanie Merritt in The Guardian. "Toksvig comes across as a passionate enthusiast for many things: the theatre (early jobs included sweeping the stage and working on the electrics crew just to be in the building), for history, for her beloved father and for equality. She recalls recording a pilot episode as a potential host of Have I Got News for You in 1990. Angus Deayton also recorded one and afterwards she was told: 'We preferred yours, Sandi, but everyone has agreed you can’t have a woman in charge of making fun of the news.'... No one who has heard Toksvig speak will be surprised to find a bedrock of compassion and righteous anger underpinning the book. She rails against the airbrushing of women from history and talks about her reasons for co-founding the Women’s Equality party and her optimism for change, despite occasionally despairing at the next generation of feminists. When she hears Lena Dunham say being wolf-whistled by a man sometimes makes her feel 'validated', Toksvig splutters: 'Validated? What are we? Car park tickets?'"
For real change, Labour should ditch its top-down thinking – article by John Harris in The Guardian. "Genuinely modern socialism would revolutionise Westminster and Whitehall and disperse their power – and so revive local government, which would be completely transformed. Labour wants to replace the Department for Work and Pensions with a new Department of Social Security: a better ambition would be to scrap a central ministry and hand the running of most benefits to councils. Much the same might apply to the local government department, and the administration of education, health and transport. Taxation could be thoroughly localised. The way places are run could start with something that the burgeoning localist movement, Flatpack Democracy, has made clear: the optimum population size for meaningful grassroots democracy is between 10,000 and 50,000. Once that point has been grasped, it opens the way to a whole world of participation (which, to state the blindingly obvious, would also depend on reforming our electoral system). Acknowledging this, and the way 'horizontal' local activity should be complemented by the help of the 'vertical' state, the left-inclined pressure group Compass calls the ideal model of modern politics '45° change'. It quotes the late environmentalist David Fleming, who said: 'Large-scale problems do not require large-scale solutions; they require small-scale solutions within a large-scale framework.' The insight is so plainly put that you have to pause to absorb its radical implications. But this is the future, and until the British left thoroughly embraces it, its great revolution in thinking will remain incomplete."
'Your throat hurts. Your brain hurts': the secret life of the audiobook star – article by Tim Dowling in The Guardian. "The audiobook market has grown from a publishing industry side hustle into a huge global business. In a climate where print and ebook sales are stagnant, the UK audiobook market rose to £69m in 2018, an increase of 43% on the previous year. In the US, audiobook downloads generate revenue of close to a billion dollars annually."
The Secret to Enjoying a Long Winter – blog post by Jason Kotke, referenced in John Naughton's Memex 1.1 blog. "In winter 2017-18, I was depressed, anxious, wasn’t getting out of bed in the morning, spent endless time on my phone doing nothing, and had trouble focusing on my work.... Last year I was so anxious that it would happen again that all that stuff was worse and started basically a week into fall. Nothing helped.... The plan for this fall was to try a SAD lamp, therapy, maybe drugs, and lots more warm travel. But then something interesting happened. Sometime this fall ... I decided that because I live in Vermont, there is nothing I can do about it being winter, so it was unhelpful for me to be upset about it. I stopped complaining about it getting cold and dark, I stopped dreading the arrival of snow. I told myself that I just wasn’t going to feel like I felt in the summer and that’s ok — winter is a time for different feelings. "
The highest number of CEOs graduated from this unexpected UK university – news article on Study International website. "Top recruitment firm [Forward Role] ... surveyed 260,000 LinkedIn profiles to find out which university the majority of company leaders, such as Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and Managing Directors (MDs), graduated from in the UK. Results for the Top 20 universities producing the most CEOs showed that the highest number of CEOs and MDs didn’t come from Oxford or the highly-ranked London School of Economics – but rather from the Open University."
How our home delivery habit reshaped the world – article by Samanth Subramanian in The Guardian. "The great trick of online retail has been to get us to do more shopping while thinking less about it – thinking less, in particular, about how our purchases reach our homes. This divorce of a product from its voyage to us is perhaps the thing that Amazon has sold us most successfully. Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder, never wanted his customers to worry about shipping – about how much it cost, or about how long it would take – and he relentlessly shredded delivery times to make shipping incidental to the purchasing experience. Amazon’s emphasis on speed compelled other retailers to hurry, too, and encouraged us to believe that if something cannot be had quickly, it is barely worth having at all. It is as if we have forgotten that a product is an object moving through space, fighting gravity, air resistance and other forces of nature. Companies, though, are only too aware of it. While we choose and buy our purchases with mere inch-wide movements of our thumbs, they are busy rearranging the physical world so that our deliveries pelt towards us in ever-quicker time."
Cancelled for sadfishing: the top 10 words of 2019 – article by David Shariatmadari in The Guardian. "We are approaching the moment when the great dictionaries pick those that sum up our times.... In advance of the lexicographers’ big reveal, here are my top 10 candidates. (1) People. A pretty ordinary word – and one with a long history (its origins are murky once you get past Latin, where populus meant a community or nation). But the way the idea of 'the people' has been used over the past year, often cynically, makes it thoroughly contemporary. ... (2) Prorogue.... (3) Femtech.... (4) Sadfishing. One of those rare words whose origin can be precisely pinpointed to an opinion piece – in Metro in January. 'Sadfishing,' wrote Rebecca Reid, 'is when someone uses their emotional problems to hook an audience on the internet'.... (5) Opoid.... (6) Pronoun. Previously an innocuous piece of linguistic plumbing, the pronoun ... is having a moment. The word itself has become a signifier of the new gender politics: it is now not unusual to see the note 'pronouns: he/him' or 'she/her' alongside job title and address at the end of emails or on social media profiles.... (7) Woke. Woke ... entered the Oxford English Dictionary in 2017, with the definition 'alert to racial or social discrimination and injustice'. So what makes it a potential word of the year 2019? Put simply, woke has gone mainstream and in doing so has been subject to a bizarre transformation. At the end of 2018, African American broadcaster Sam Sanders ... argued that any authenticity it once had was being lost due to overuse by white liberals, leading to its co-option by businesses keen to burnish their progressive credentials – so-called 'wokewashing' – and ultimately to a backlash.... (8) Nanoinfluencer.... (9) Cancelled.... (10) Crisis...."
‘Is this what the west is really like?’ How it felt to leave China for Britain – article by Xiaolu Guo in The Guardian, extracted from her book Once Upon a Time in the East: A Story of Growing Up. "Before I left China, I was desperately looking for something: freedom, the chance to live as an individual with dignity. This was impossible in my home country. But I was also blindly looking for something connected to the west, something non-ideological, something imaginative and romantic. But as I walked along the London streets, trying to save every penny for buses or food, I lost sight of my previous vision. London seemed no more spiritually fulfilling than home. Instead, I was faced with a world of practical problems and difficulties. Perhaps I was looking for great writers to meet or great books to read, but I could barely decipher a paragraph of English. ... all I encountered were angry teenagers who screamed at me as they passed on their stolen bikes and grabbed my bag – they were the most frightening group I had ever met in my life. Before I came to England, I thought all British teenagers attended elite boarding schools such as Eton, spoke posh and wore perfect black suits. It was a stupid assumption, no doubt. But all I had to go on were the English period dramas that showed rich people in plush mansions, as if that was how everyone lived in England. In the evenings, I hid my long hair in my coat and walked along the graffiti-smeared streets and piss-drenched alleyways, passing beggars with their dogs, and I asked myself: 'So is this what the rich west is really like?' "
This election will be all about identity, not money. And the Tories know it – article by Simon Jenkins in The Guardian. "Why would anyone not vote Labour? If person A knocks on your door and offers you £1,000, no questions asked, and person B offers £100, why refuse A? The question has long puzzled experts. ... US academic Jonathan Haidt, in an attempt to understand why on earth poor people voted for George W Bush [(Why would they want a wider wealth gap, worse healthcare and more corporate greed?)] [answered] that these 'left behinds' saw politics as about more than money. It was about their families and collective safety, about local and group identity, about faith and a morality seen as personal, not ordained by the state. ... Analysis by Matthew Goodwin and Roger Eatwell into who voted for Brexit in Britain and Donald Trump in the US found the tribes remarkably similar, with support in both cases more widely spread across ages and classes than initially supposed. Indeed, average leave and Trump voters had above-average incomes. What they shared was a concern about the continuity of their identity and way of life. They feared outsiders and newcomers."
On the Farm – article by Daisy Hildyard in The London Review of Books 7 June 2018, referenced by John Naughton in his Memex 1.1 blog. "The Lisbon Treaty currently guides policy creation in light of the fact that ‘animals are sentient beings.’ When the clause was pushed out of UK law by 18 votes, there was an angry and slightly bewildered public response (when any response was registered at all). Parliament, in turn, reacted with some confusion. Michael Gove issued an official statement from Defra saying that the government wasn’t necessarily saying that animals are not sentient, but that it was saying it won’t say that they are.... It is true that Britain has a long history of protecting animals... The Animal Welfare Act of 2006 is substantially committed, as Gove says it is, to high standards. However, its clauses do not have much to say about laboratory or farm animals, or many species in the wild. They largely relate to domestic animals, the category of nonhuman which, given that human-style consciousness is, if anything, over-attributed to most pets, is least in need of a law certifying sentience.... Teresa Villiers, MP for Chipping Barnet, also issued a statement on the issue, in which she pledges to hold Gove to his promises and accepts that, in the reality she occupies when she is not voting in Parliament, ‘animals are sentient, can feel pain, and have feelings.’ ... So, Villiers and Gove say that they are not anti-sentience, but anti-pro-sentience, and not in real life, and only for the time being. ... Their scrambled and scrambling statements suggest a sense of shame. You know the story: you cast your vote against animal sentience and you feel it’s reasonable to do so, but then you have to go home and undress in front of the cat."
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